TechTarget, Jan. 2024

TechTarget: Competition, cooperation will define U.S.-China relations

The U.S. will likely continue decoupling from China in areas such as manufacturing and technology development, while other nations including the European Union play a mediating role between the two nations, said Conor Seyle, vice president of operations at nonprofit foundation PAX sapiens and a panelist during the Brookings discussion.

PAX sapiens released a report outlining four potential outcomes of U.S-China relations in the next decade that will help policymakers and business leaders prepare. The potential outcomes are:

Neither country takes the first step to create conditions for effective cooperation, and contention on national security, economic issues and competition continues.
Tensions escalate and result in war between the U.S. and China.
The U.S. and China completely decouple and evolve into non-overlapping ecosystems, meaning both countries operate under different standards, institutions and systems.
The U.S. continues to decouple from China but encounters overlap in some areas, including through third countries and international standards for technology development and economic ties.

“This is a new normal that we’re seeing,” he said.Though U.S.-China relations aren’t expected to vastly improve, third countries will play a significant role in balancing U.S.-China relations, as they likely won’t wish to choose a side, Seyle said.”There’s a significant role for third countries, especially European countries, in deciding whether we end up in a future which looks more polarized … or one which is a little bit more complexly networked,” he said.

While there is a real risk of war between the U.S. and China as outlined in the report, Seyle said he believes it can be avoided over the next decade.